So there’s a 80% chance that Vista will ship on time
(at least according to Bill Gates). Well, that assumes that with “on time” you mean “January of 2007″, which by my counting is already the fourth shipping date suggested for Longhorn, I mean, Vista. Originally this was supposed to ship in early 05, about four years after XP came to the masses. Since then it has lost basically all features that seemed interesting (like the new filesystem or some of the (much hated, by some people) changes to its security model). But still, the shipping date keeps slipping and slipping.
It’s easy to be gleeful and poke fun at them. Especially after watching the hilarious video about the Vista features on Google Video where some unkind sole replaced the video part of a Microsoft presentation about Vista’s exciting new features with a video showing all the things the speaker mentions on the long shipping Mac OS X Tiger. Oops.
But back to the delays - is the open source community doing much better? Obviously there’s this wonderful “release early, release often” paradigm in open source that in many ways prevents dreadful delays from happening. And the vendors (like Red Hat or SuSE - I mean, Novell) are doing a decent job to keep schedule slips in the “a few weeks” range (with OpenSuSE 10.1 one of the rare examples). Yet, I don’t think that’s really comparable. The amount of testing Microsoft needs to do to make sure that the whole ecosystem is ready for the move is just unbelievable. And the closed source development model really puts them at a disadvantage. Beta testers of open source OSs simply can take a look at the code and fix it. No such luck with Vista.
But what is more significant here is that things are measured differently. All the public testing of the components (the kernel, the user space libraries, the tool chain, the applications) happens openly and through a huge community in open source; and the Linux vendors then package the result of this and do mainly integration testing for their release. Microsoft on the other hand develops all components with a comparably small team behind closed doors and then unleashes the “fresh” integration of all these “fresh” components on their beta testers. A very different thing to do - and much harder to get right.
So I feel a bit sorry for them. And I feel that some of the comparisons are unfair. But the underlying conclusion doesn’t really change. The open source model is simply superior in creating innovation and timely products for your customers.
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I hope this was helpful - if not, please leave a comment and let me know why! Were you searching for something else? Did I miss an important aspect?
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