This isn’t a new idea. Joe Wilcox has discussed this in his BetaNews article a couple of months ago.
But spending a lot of time at OSCON last week made it clear to me how true this observation has become – with all its implications.
The developers of Android and MeeGo are quite actively playing “Internet” to Apple’s “AOL”. Instead of inviting innovation and content onto their platform, Apple is focused on controlling every aspect. All under the guise of delivering a better user experience. At the same time throttling innovation and freedom for their users. And just as with AOL, at first that seemed like a good idea. You know, a well maintained garden, everything is pretty, none of that pesky dangerous (or seedy) stuff that is out there in the unregulated Internet.
But it turns out that people want that. Whether it is free access to applications (thanks to the Library of Congress, there is some good news for Apple users – but if you have to “jailbreak” your device in order to get the software you want, maybe you are using the wrong device to begin with). Or whether it is the ability to extend functionality (tethering, anyone?).
A year ago everyone was looking at Android and was writing them off. Look at all the apps that the iPhone has. Look at all that mind share. Today, Android is activating about 160k devices every day, the app store is growing like crazy and the traction in the eco system (and the non-stop comparisons) are showing that the tides have turned.
How will Apple prove that they’ve lost touch? Here are my predictions. They will continue to show their contempt for their customers. New feature in Mac OS 10.7 (rebranded as iOS7 or something): applications can only be installed from the Apple AppStore. Adding an additional monitor to your Mac will require an app (that of course you pay for). The iPad will only connect to Apple approved wireless networks. They will continue to prohibit network sharing between devices. It’s just like dial-up.
And what will the Linux players do to counter this? They will encourage innovation and new ideas. They will allow people to hack the devices that they bought, to make them better, weirder, different.
Yes, it took a while for the Internet to drive AOL into irrelevance. And similarly, it will take time for the mass of the customers to realize just how Apple is taking advantage of them. And there will continue to be some fanboyz. Hey, I just this week got email from someone with an AOL email address (and the “real name” in the email headers was their AOL email address again, this time in all caps)…